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| FILE - Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe arrives for the opening of Parliament in Harare, Zimbabwe, Oct. 6, 2016. |
Zimbabwe is in flux. There are regular protests, especially in the
capital, over currency and food shortages, unemployment, and alleged
government corruption and mismanagement.
Observers say an effective political solution may not be soon in coming.
President Robert Mugabe, 92, and his ruling ZANU-PF party have been
in power for 36 years. But the party is breaking into factions, and at
least one former member, onetime Vice President Joyce Mujuru, has formed
her own party, Zimbabwe People First. The longtime opposition Movement
for Democratic Change has new competitors, including more than a dozen
new parties and youth-driven protest movements inspired by social media.
All are preparing for national elections in 2018.
Participants in a recent symposium at the Washington-based U.S.
Institute of Peace looked at some of the challenges facing Zimbabwe, and
they agreed that its citizens and the international community alike
would favor a "soft landing" in a post-Mugabe future.
Military is 'really central'
Symposium participant Alex Vines, head of the Africa Program at the
London-based policy institute Chatham House, said the West has become
complacent and has lost contact with the military and with different
factions within the ruling party.
"If we get into a really uncertain and unpredictable security
situation in Zimbabwe," he said, "it will be the military that will have
a role in managing that process. ... I believe the military will play a
key role ... in whatever happens, as a kingmaker in whatever coalition
or inclusive political entity that might come up [between] the
opposition and parts that have split from ZANU-PF. The military is
really central here."
FILE - Supporters of the Zimbabwe African National
Union's Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) march in Harare to protest against a
European Union decision to extend economic sanctions on Zimbabwe, Feb.
24, 2010.
Symposium delegates also urged the U.S. and its allies to revisit
sanctions on Zimbabwe targeting more than 80 people and 50 groups
linked to human rights violations, corruption and mismanagement. They
said the sanctions list was outdated and included government critics
like Mujuru.
Vines said many Zimbabweans blame the sanctions for their suffering, rather than the government.
"I do believe that ... ZANU-PF and Robert Mugabe won the propaganda
battle about sanctions, and I'm surprised at how many well-educated
Zimbabweans from civil society and others blame sanctions partly for
economic woes and not economic policies," he said. "It has been used as a
fig leaf to hide financial mismanagement and other problems. That was
one of the drivers for the European Union and Australia to significantly
reduce their targeted measures on Zimbabwe to Mugabe, the first lady
and Zimbabwe Defense Industries, and I do believe the U.S. and Canada
... need to [revise their outdated sanctions] lists very carefully."
Role of sanctions
Also taking part in the seminar was Johnnie Carson, former U.S.
assistant for secretary of state for African affairs under the Obama
administration. He said the U.S. government had considered lifting
sanctions in order to encourage democratic reforms. But he suggested
that the U.S. maintain them as a way to encourage democratization and
good governance in Zimbabwe although those efforts have not succeeded so
far.
"In 2010 and 2011," he said, "we worked very closely with the South
Africans looking for solutions ... and said ... that we, and I, would
have been willing to do everything possible to pull down the sanctions
if the Zimbabweans were willing to do one or two significant things in
the run-up to [the 2013] elections, [such as] invite the Carter Center,
the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic
Institute and the Commonwealth to be monitors for the elections. ... We
must continue to probe and look for opportunities, but recognize there
are times we don't have partners, and times when the environment does
not permit."
FILE - Trucks laden with goods headed for Zimbabwe
are seen near the Beitbride border post between South Africa and
Zimbabwe, in Musina, South Africa, March 28, 2008.
Carson said U.S. ambassadors to Africa should continue to reach
out to Zimbabwe's business community — an idea also backed by Whitney
Schneidman, former deputy assistant secretary of state for African
affairs and current senior associate at the Washington-based law firm of
Covington and Berling. He noted the efforts of former U.S. Ambassador
to Zimbabwe Bruce Wharton to strengthen ties with the country's private
sector last year.
The Corporate Council on Africa was invited to send a trade mission
to Zimbabwe and a reverse trade mission from Zimbabwe came to the U.S.,"
Schneidman said. "This activity should be continued. A delegation from
the President's Advisory Committee on Doing Business in Africa could
conduct a fact-finding visit to the country."
Strive for more stability
Schneidman said the Mugabe government should take action to enhance
stability in the run-up to elections and a new administration. He said
the government had proposed a land compensation fund for both black and
white farmers who have been displaced as owners by administration
supporters. It is also considering long-term leases that would allow
farmers to invest in fallow land.
Schneidman also urged continued efforts by Harare to improve
relations with the World Bank and other international financial
institutions.
Participants in the Washington panel said Zimbabwe had lost the
interest of some policymakers in the West. But they said the country
remained an important player in southern Africa politics and trade, and
that state collapse and a worsening refugee crisis could destabilize the
whole region.
http://www.voanews.com/a/analysts-urge-soft-landing-post-mugabe-transition-zimbabwe/3553029.html
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