Kabila, the DRC’s
leader for the past 15 years, is the latest in a long line of African leaders
to decide he has to stay in office because he’s indispensable. Just last month,
in a disputed vote, Yoweri Museveni extended his 30-year rule in Uganda under similar
pretenses, and Burundi is on the brink of chaos with the decision of President
Pierre Nkurunziza to seek an unconstitutional third term. Indeed, nine African
countries have a leader who has been in power for more than 20 years.
There are plenty
of reasons for the U.S. to be deeply concerned about maintaining stability in
the center of Africa. A country as big as Western Europe, with a youthful
population and vast natural resource wealth, the DRC holds a strategic position
in Africa and the world. An unstable Congo threatens other African countries.
But beyond that, if the U.S. could help secure a smooth transfer of power from
Kabila to a democratically elected successor, Congo could become not just a
crisis averted but a shining example. A peaceful transition there could help
Africa break the pattern of “leaders for life” who constrain not only civil and
political liberties but also economic growth, preferring to reward friends and
family with business franchises. The benefits of that would reverberate across
the globe.
Kabila’s behavior
— including the sentences of six activists to two years in prison for calling
for a general strike — has caused not just national but global protest. On
April 25 at the United Nations, Secretary of State John Kerry told Kabila that “timely and credible elections” in the DRC
were essential to the country’s future. Just a few days before that, on April
15, Sen. John McCain wrote to the DRC’s ambassador to the United States to
express his “deep concern at the increasingly repressive political climate and
erosion in the human rights situation.”
But rather than
taking the latest criticism to heart, Kabila lashed out. His Cabinet Ministers
bought a full-page ad in the New York Times on April 23 to tell the world to
back off, claiming that Kabila had “placed the DRC on the orbit of stability.”
There is no one among the opposition better suited for the job, said the ad,
claiming Kabila’s opponents are “divided, without landmark, without a leader,
without a program.” So there’s no need to respect the Constitutional limit on
presidential terms.
The ad used
language reminiscent of the era of Joseph Mobutu, who ruled DRC for over 30
years when it was called Zaire. He dubbed himself Mobutu Sese Seko Nkuku wa za
Banga, which is translated as “the all-conquering warrior, who goes from
triumph to triumph.” Kabila’s Ministers, in turn, predicted that on his
economic accomplishments alone, “History will keep of Kabila the image as a great
reformer.” He has ways to go. The World Bank ranked
the DRC 176th out of 187 countries on its Human Development Index in 2015.
Kabila’s response
to McCain’s letter was also disturbing. Lambert Mende Omalanga, the President’s Spokesman, said McCain should stop using his “celebrity and leadership for the
sake of some extremists’ projects, probably on the basis of biased
information.” Omalanga concluded that the U.S. “come specifically to the
bedside of our electoral process with the expected funding instead of confining
itself to anathemas and threats of a bygone era.”
U.S. policymakers
are right to worry that Kabila is about to crack down hard on opponents and
extend his presidency through force for as long as he sees fit, no matter the
effect on stability in the center of Africa. And that stability is critical to
U.S. efforts to fight terrorism. Al Qaeda, ISIS and their affiliates are
forcefully moving to establish a foothold in sub-Saharan Africa,
planning to use its mineral wealth to fund terrorism. If Kabila’s refusal to
relinquish power destabilizes the DRC, it could create a vacuum for terrorist
groups to fill, just as happened in Syria and Libya.
The danger is
increasing. Two months ago, when people throughout the country staged a
national sick-day of sorts in support of democracy, Kabila seemed to look the other way. But on April 24, a large
rally billed as “the day of commemoration of the establishment of the
Democratic Republic of Congo” was dispersed forcefully. Now, as thousands flock
to support democracy, the President’s security forces are dispatching citizens
with tear gas, blockades, arrests and threats.
There were no
reports of provocation from the crowd on April 24. It was simply a march that
included prominent opposition leaders, including Moise Katumbi, the Governor of
Katanga Province, who has emerged as a popular possible contender to succeed
Kabila. Last week, security forces defaced and removed posters bearing
Katumbi’s image and then used force against protesting crowds. The response showed
that Kabila knows he is not indispensable and wants to prevent an alternative
leader from emerging.
Kabila’s actions
are putting in jeopardy the minimal progress the DRC has made in reform of his
nation’s governance since he succeeded his father, who was assassinated in
2001. After being reelected in 2006, Kabila supported the adoption of a new Constitution, but over the past five years he’s used force and intimidation to
squash political opponents, and now he’s making it all but impossible to hold
elections as the Constitution requires.
Two months ago,
top State Department officials warned Congress that a grave humanitarian crisis could
erupt if Kabila succeeds in preventing a free election. Since then Kabila has
made his intransigence clear.
What can the U.S.
do? Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign
Relations subcommittee on Africa, wrote to Kerry in February, outlining the
right approach for the U.S. government: First, demand that Kabila states
affirmatively that he will not seek a third term and will insure the political
space for candidates to campaign for the presidency; second, provide the
necessary guidance and funding for a free and fair election this year. Third,
if Kabila fails to make the commitment to step down, move ahead with denials of
visas and asset freezes, coordinated with other governments and targeted at the President, his family and political associates. The U.S. should also reduce
security and economic aid flowing through the DRC government and discourage
foreign investment.
If President
Barack Obama takes these steps now and Kabila bows out, the signal to other
aspiring presidents-for-life will be clear. The U.S. will act on its belief
that democracy is essential on the continent, not just for the human rights and
economic well-being of Africans but also for the national security of
Americans.
James K. Glassman, former Undersecretary for State for Public Diplomacy
and Public Affairs, is a member of the Advisory Board of United for Africa’s
Democratic Future.
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